China Daily

recently, the National Bureau of Statistics of China in the first half of macroeconomic data. How should look at the meaning behind these data, the data of the second half of the macroeconomic policy will be the effect, in the second half economic situation? Wang Yiming, vice president of Macroeconomic Research of National Development and Reform Commission carried out this interpretation.

declining growth rate is not a "second bottom"

Q: Could you comment about running my first half of the overall macroeconomic situation.

A: From the published data, the first half of the overall macroeconomic maintained steady and rapid growth in the basic situation. Power structure from the perspective of economic growth, domestic demand and external demand more coordination. We are in the first half economic growth was domestic demand driven. With the global economy slow, moderate recovery, and our export situation began to change for the better, so that the inner and outer needs more coordination in general has.

Q: In the first half of our GDP grew by 11.1%. But the second quarter GDP grew by 10.3%, than the first quarter dropped 1.6%. You think back to why?

A: First of all, to a considerable extent the reasons for the base. Excluding these base elements, then the second quarter of this year with first quarter growth data should be said to be the same. Second, 11.9% in the first quarter of this year, including 11.1% in the first half. If throughout the year to maintain such a high speed, but also beyond the level of growth potential, will make the economy too much pressure on aggregate demand. Therefore, in the direction of macro regulation and control will be appropriate to slow growth. We put the first half, including the management of market liquidity, clearing the local financing platform, reduce excess high energy consumption industries, were to some extent, this rapid growth rate tends to a more reasonable range.

Q: Will bring economic growth down the "second bottom?"

A: From the trend of the past 30 years to determine, we average annual growth rate of 9.9%, so the potential level of growth is generally believed that in 9% to 10%, and as China's economy increase in the base, the potential level of growth may be a callback. First half of the 11.1% level, it should be said also above the level of potential growth, so that appropriate callback do not worry. The bottom of the connotation? If the return to 6.5% in the first quarter of last year, called "bottom", this obviously will not go back to this speed, so that there is no "second bottom," the possibility. Reasonable economic callback is conducive to restructuring is conducive to balanced, sustainable growth. In this sense, it is a good thing, so do not be too worried.

positive factors affecting the stock market will show

Q: A-share market in recent months, poor performance, do you think will run the second half of what kind of A-share market of?

A: From the internal point of view, including our liquidity to strengthen market management, property control, clean up local financing platform, compression of high energy-consuming industries, the market fundamentals are expected to be the formation of certain impact. The Shanghai index from the beginning of 3277 points, down to 2319 points, this may also exceed the expectations of many market participants. Then coupled with the media early in the second half of the economy down the various predictions and may further strengthen the people's expectations of this market. So, I think some of the stock market the second half of the positive factors that will gradually become apparent, so the stock market may be a good step by step to play a positive role.

In addition, the second half of some promotion of economic development initiatives, will also promote the development of capital markets play a positive role. For example, in industry level, the countries are now planning to develop a strategic new industries, such as new energy, environmental protection, biological medicine, new generation of information networks, new materials, these new industries have investment value, and growth will strong.

In addition, we as the "new national strategy of western development decade" of the implementation of the strategy, the western region, there are many large-scale investment projects will be started. Some sections will also become a strategic investment, so a certain extent, the recovery is expected to play a fundamental role in the positive.

regulation of property to create more investment channels

Q: housing control policy from the introduction to the present, some results have been initially apparent, and you think the next stage of the policy direction of the Housing Control What?

A: Real estate is not only short-term policy need for such regulation, more importantly, the future structure of the real estate market, need an institutional framework. Our housing reform in 1998 after competitive real estate market very quickly. However, in this process, we may be missing a piece of what is affordable housing. In the past, ours is not enough, the future institutional framework which needs to be several ways:

1, China's housing system to meet China's national conditions, can not copy the American model. Second, we must adhere to the direction of the market. Not because house prices go too high on the back. Third, we must reconstruct affordable housing system. Prime Minister in the government work report this year, which also mentioned, to increase affordable housing, especially low-rent public housing and rent as the main body, so that low-income people, "Home Ownership." Fourth, the real estate market requires macro-control, can not any of the market to adjust. The adjustment is mainly directed against over-investment and speculative demand. Derived from the subject on why the investment and speculative demand are concentrated in the real estate field? This is the innovation of our capital markets have asked, can the development of more industrial investment funds, investment channels for investors. Including to the international market, including the QDI further broaden its investment channels. So now we are going to create more investment channels for investors.

the second half of the economic situation remains complicated

Q: You predicted the trend of the second half of the Chinese economy how?

A: The first half of the overall economy maintained steady growth, no significant decline. This economic growth in the second half created a good foundation. But the current economic situation is very complicated, and now there is no noticeable decline in the economy, does not mean that our economic performance has entered a steady growth in the channel, it does not mean that we have a fundamental improvement in economic performance. Therefore, we the complexity of the economic situation or to have a full understanding.

from the second half of the trend, or a lot of favorable conditions. First, the global trend of more and more uncertain economic recovery, particularly the International Monetary Fund recently forecast adjusted money growth, from 4.2% transferred to 4.6%, this recovery trend is clarified.

Second, from a domestic perspective, the basic direction of our policy change, to maintain the overall macroeconomic policy loose. This point is clear.

The third point is very important, positive and effective government regulation, we-market is also increasing the driving force of economic growth in the power structure is undergoing a positive change. Private investment growth exceeded the growth rate of state investment and private capital have become more active, market forces come into play, these are good second-half economic growth to continue to some positive factors.

of course, there are many complex factors, the second half of the economy still faces the problem of high base. We are in the end to short-term rate, or to be more long-term rate, which is an option.

the same time, the second half we still face some inflation pressures, so they need to continue to insist that inflation expectations management.

In addition, because last year we invest 4 trillion yuan in the contribution rate of the economy greatly, as this year's highlights overcapacity, investment growth, industrial decline in the second half has some, this decline could have economic implications.

Finally, from the enterprise level, as labor costs rise, the adjustment of exchange rate formation mechanism, a certain degree of raw material prices are still high, the enterprise will have some impact on production costs, these factors are in the second half needs to be considered.

Overall, however, my personal economic growth this year is very confident, the most conservative estimates, China's economic growth at over 9% year should be no problem. I would like to be at 9.5% to 10%, does not occur if we can not expect a big event, this point I still have confidence.