Rebar has quietly changed the fundamentals are expected to rebound
⊙ ○ edit Yang Gang
rebar peaked since April 13 has continued to fall all the way to 9 July 1010 contract thread decreased by 20%. Rebar prices in recent months led to the reason can be attributed to the following aspects: First, the debt crisis led to the European financial market as a whole fell; Second, the government introduced a real estate macro control policy, so pessimistic market expectations on later consumption; 3 is a huge inventory, dealers competing Paohuo cash; Fourth, steel cut ineffective, the output record highs. But as prices continued to fall, domestic and foreign financial markets pick up, the four factors are quietly changing, this author believes that rebar will enter the late stages of shock rebound, the proposed downstream of consumer contract in 4100 to do the following bid to buy 1101 into the hedge.
First of all, recently, Europe has been gradually fading out the debt crisis topic of attention, but the government delayed stimulus caused by excessive liquidity out again into sight, national stock markets rebounded sharply to a certain extent, reflect the overall financial markets rebound and improved economic conditions.
Second, affordable housing and development projects in the western region will increase steel demand in late. This year we were building all kinds of affordable housing and shantytowns housing 5.8 million units. Even if calculated in accordance with 60 square meters each, 580 million units of affordable housing in the construction area will reach 348 million square meters, accounting for new construction area of real estate last year to 30%. In addition, the 23 western development project implementation, the late steel demand is expected to become better.
Finally, the steel below the cost of production is expected to decline. With the high price of iron ore in June into the cost accounting, the loss of steel pressure will gradually increase, thus I believe that entering in July will expand the scope of steel cut steel production will peak in. In addition, this year the state's determination to eliminate the backward production capacity are also more determined than in previous years.
