Alibaba is expected in the first quarter export growth rate will reach 23%
SAN afternoon of Jan. 14, according to Ali Baba Staff responsible person, Ali Baba and the processing trade export orders index rose two factors on the import of real exports grew strong correlation between, through the regression analysis to predict the first quarter of 2011 China's export growth rate will reach 23% year on year.
According to reports, the trade from Alibaba platform data, the fourth quarter of last year, Alibaba China export orders index continued to rise, it is broke through December 50, indicates that the export situation first half of 2011 compared optimistic.
data show that in December, HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) 55.3. Last December, China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) although slightly down, but from the breakdown point of view, and export is closely related to the new export orders index still rose slightly.
12 January PMI figures are still higher than the long-term average of 52.3 also shows that domestic production for export and is still a large number of domestic consumer market for goods,
from external factors point of view, in December the U.S. PMI index reached 57.0, more than expected, although the euro-zone PMI index declined slightly, but still reached 55.0, in the expansion section.
Although 23% of annual export growth rate of 31.3% below last year's growth, it also reflects the strong momentum of domestic export enterprises not subject to monetary tightening measures - including the two interest rates - a significant impact.
In fact, 23% of the optimistic forecast strong growth in exports in 2010 is a continuation. 2010, 2010, China's exports $ 1,577,930,000,000, up 31.3%; of which $ 1,488,710,000,000 import and export of general trade, up 39.9%, higher than the current growth rate of 5.2 percentage points of import and export; processing trade import and export of $ 1,157,760,000,000, an increase of 27.3%. (Fleming)
